OIL PRICES FLUCTUATION - Angeleo’s diary

Oil is a commodity , and as such , it is to see large fluctuations in the price of more stable investments such as stocks and bonds . OPEC , or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries , in the oil price fluctuations, is the primary influencer.
We have seen a serious fluctuation in the oil prices in the past few years, depending on various factors. Here is a helicopter view of the oil prices variations in 2016 so far.

Brent oil increased by $ 3 / B in April and so far $ 42 / B monthly average , which was more than the monthly average for the year, Brent crude oil spot prices . The monthly average Brent price in the third consecutive increase , the longest such stretch since April 2014. Several factors put pressure to increase crude oil prices in April economic data and improving the accelerating demand growth for oil on the international level that is relevant indicators , the US rig count and the decline in crude oil production and growing oil supply outages

Despite the recent rise in prices , EIA limit global pressure on the price of oil inventory in the coming months , making an average of 0.9 million B / D in 2016, the second and third quarters is expected .
Brent prices expected $ 42 / B average in the second and third quarter 2016 , the growth of global oil inventory before rising to $ 44 / B in the fourth quarter as a result of slow growth.

EIA's global oil inventories averaged $ 51 / B 2017. The third quarter with inventory expected to be launched in quarter 2017. Brent prices expected to escalate in price increases, rising prices in the first half of 2017 the forecast expects contributions are forecast Draw draws in 2017, STEO forecast in last month's $ 10 / B high. Weather forecast period draws out Brent prices for 2017 reflect the potential of the fourth quarter of $ 57 / B average, more inventory.
Tight market balance, the high oil price forecast is largely a strong point based particularly on the second half of 2017, oil consumption globally STEO this month compared with April STEO reflects. The OECD counts of high oil consumption figures in Asia, global economy data supported by the count upward for oil consumption growth globally of 0.3 million B / D and 0.2 million B / D, respectively, 2016 and 2017 contributed to. In the past, economic development and was considered one of the main downside risks to oil prices in the forecast period, demand growth associated with oil, and the live economic risks, and the assumed low past.
In fact, the storage capacity is taken away from the pressures of the recent surge in global oil supply outages. This reduction in supply were reflected in a limited differential for oil prices for near-term delivery than prices for delivery further in the future. The closure will sharply increase inventory storage costs growth is likely to put downward pressure on oil prices reduced.
The forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices as the Brent price parity with Brent over WTI slightly less than forecast in 2017. The relative price of Brent crude oil in 2016 the assumption is based on a comparison between the average market two crudes, travel cost Gulf Coast refinery market to grow crudes points to determine their respective prices are diverse as well.
Futures and options contracts reflect the current values of hard off Outlook and highlight the high oil price uncertainty (market prices and uncertainty report). Five-day period, WTI futures contracts for delivery in August 2016 that were traded during May 5, ending $ 46 / B average, and the average implied volatility of 41%. These levels $ 32 / B and $ 65 / B, for a monthly average WTI prices in the market's expectations in August 2016, respectively, 95% confidence interval of the lower and upper limits. With 95% confidence interval time to market expectations, this time in the $ 26 / B and $ 83 / B of the lower and upper limits of December 2016. The prices for the past year, the average WTI for August 2015 delivery $ 61 / B, and the implied volatility spread is $ 46 / B and $ 81 / B in 95% with corresponding lower and upper limits of the confidence interval, 33% average.